Though violence continues to mount in Southern Syria, the regime has still not began a major offensive to take back lost territory. I am inclined to think that Russia has bought the opposition some extra time. However, even though there has not been an offensive yet, the bombardment of Dara’a and other areas has continued.
Hurras ad-Din, a militant group associated with hardline jihadist groups, bombed a bus belonging to the Republican guard in the Damascus neighborhood of al-Areen.
The group claimed to be responding to the situation in Dara’a. This perhaps indicates some broader support among Syrian society. I think I remember seeing that there were protests in Eastern Ghouta, and area that was under opposition control until a major government offensive in 2018 captured the entire pocket. Though there definitely seems to be support for Dara’a across Syria, there is certainly not enough to change the regime’s calculus in the area.
In the Eastern Dara’a countryside, it looks like regime forces evacuated their positions in the town of al-Jeezah, but have maintained their siege of Dara’a al-Balad and continued its bombardment. Large amounts of people are fleeing the area via the Saraya checkpoint, but they are being preyed upon by government forces, who are charging them large sums of money to escape the area. They are trying to avoid what they see as an inevitable military operation into the area.
Step News Agency reported that some of the regimes bombardment of Tariq as-Sid was originating from grain silos East of the city. I believe these are the grain silos:
Regime positions here are somewhat tenuous, but with enough men, they should be able to hold them with relative ease from militants in the neighboring towns of al-Naymeh and Um al-Miathin.
I am not sure what tomorrow will bring. Likely more bombardment. The trend continues of me seeing that talks have collapsed only for a 24-48 hour truce to be announced shortly after. Strategic ambiguity perhaps.
Sources:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guardians_of_Religion_Organization#Analysis
https://npasyria.com/en/63048/