In the past few days the Houthis have advanced to Marib’s last line of defense.
The only thing between Marib and the Houthis is a mountainous ridge that separates the two sides. It looks as if the city’s fall will be coming soon.
The Houthis started their offensive against Marib in the beginning of the year, but did not make any substantial progress until September, when they cut the main supply line to the city from Ataq. I wrote about this here. Since then, they have slowly pushed up the road, routing Saudi-backed forces along the way.
Thousands have been killed since the beginning of the battle back in February.
Interestingly, most of the Houthis’ advances appear to be from separate tribal agreements rather than direct fighting. A good chunk of the Saudi-backed forces in the area are local tribal militias, who generally do not have a strong affinity to either side in the conflict. Many Yemeni tribes want to be left alone, and are not keen to be ruled by either Sana or Aden. So, the Houthis would push into an area, fight for a bit, and then make an agreement with the tribal militia that controls that area. Rinse and repeat.
That approach will likely not work for Marib itself, where a large amount of regular troops are stationed. It is unclear how long things will take, but I highly doubt at this point that Saudi-backed forces will be able to turn the tide. Even with reinforcements moving to the area recently, the Houthi advance has not been slowed. There is, of course, always a chance that a counterattack could stop the fall of the city, but as of now, the Houthis have the momentum and strategic upper hand.