Ahmad al-Oda, the ex-rebel commander of the Russian-backed 8th Brigade that is stationed in and around Bosra al-Sham, has allegedly fled to Jordan. I have not yet been able to verify this.
Iranian-backed regime forces are likely about to enter 8th Brigade areas, such as Naima and Saida, under the auspices of fulfilling reconciliation agreements. The tweet also states that regime forces are set to enter Bosra as well.
I need to wait until there is more news on this, but for now, I believe that the Russians may have cut al-Oda lose.
Recently, the regime successfully wrapped up most of the Western Dara’a countryside. As expected, violence has continued, but at a decreased intensity. The Eastern countryside is mainly controlled by Russian-backed forces, but perhaps the Russians have given up on them.
Al-Oda could have also just gone on a routine trip to Jordan. He is known to regularly cross the border and is likely still in touch with Jordanian intelligence.
Perhaps Jordan’s warming to the regime has made al-Oda expendable, and perhaps his days as the Russians’ point man in Southern Syria are over. I think this is quite possible.
Regime control of the South has slowly been strengthened in the last month or so, and with the Eastern countryside hosting regime forces, opposition movements in the region will be even more restricted.
Update:
Ahrar Horan confirmed that al-Oda traveled to Jordan on October 7th for unknown reasons