Turkey’s president, Recip Tayyib Erdogan declared that there will be an offensive into Northern Syria if “diplomacy fails.” This came alongside leaflet drops across Tel Rifa’at warning civilians of an upcoming offensive.
Here is the leaflet:
My translation:
The Tel Rifa’at pocket lies just north of the city of Aleppo, and is controlled by the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) which is aligned with the United States, and it is considered part of the AANES or Rojava. Russian and regime troops are also present in the pocket, mainly to prevent Turkish offensives. The area is important because of the constant fighting that occurs there and its proximity to the Turkish border. The area is also used as a staging ground for guerrilla attacks into Turkish-occupied Northern Syria by Kurdish forces.
I saw someone report the beginning of the operation, but the tweet has been deleted. Turkish artillery did, however, open up on YPG positions in the pocket, but this is commonplace.
Woofers, the twitter handle of a prolific and reliable conflict tracker, said that Tel Rifa’at is likely not on the menu for any Turkish operation. He does, however, believe that an operation elsewhere could be coming soon, as Turkey’s economy has recently taken a major hit, and Erdogan might need some sort of domestic win to offset public outcry.
Another commenter stressed that Russia’s main strategic goal in Northern Syria is capturing the M4 highway which runs from the coastal city of Latakia to the Iraqi border. One of the contested areas, the city of Manbij, lies on the M4 and is thus out of the question for Russia. I think this is a relatively good view of Russian strategy, but it misses Russia’s desire to create a cost for Turkey if it continues to occupy parts of Syria. Moscow has slowly been increasing the heat for some time.
Overall, it is unclear when and where a Turkish offensive would be carried out.
This would not be the first time Erdogan has bluffed. During the offensive into Idlib in 2020, Erdogan threatened that the Turkish military would recapture territory from the government if it’s forces did not withdraw to pre-offensive lines. This, of course, did not happen, as rebel offensives petered out and an agreement was reached, ending the operation.
Honestly, I don’t feel comfortable speculating too much at the moment. I think there will be offensives, but they will take time to prepare. I doubt they are going to start right this moment. Time will tell.
In other news, a few hours ago an I.E.D. hit a Turkish convoy in Idlib, killing and wounding several Turkish soldiers. Abu Bakr al-Saddiq, an Islamist group that is waging a guerrilla war against the Turkish army, claimed responsibility for the attack. Turkey has not responded as of yet.