October 20, 2021 - Syria
Regime bombing leads to 10 civilians dead and insurgent attack in Damascus
There were two big incidents today:
Regime bombardment of Ariha, which lies in the Idlib pocket, led to the death of 10 civilians in a busy market, four of which were children.
Militants managed to launch a successful attack in Damascus, killing a number of government and military personnel, as well as one civilian.
Regarding the attack in Idlib, the photos are pretty grim. This video was posted on twitter of an artillery shell landing.
Graphic Content Warning
Unfortunately, this is not an uncommon occurrence in Idlib. The regime regularly commits terror bombings of civilian areas. This has been a common feature of its tactics during the civil war.
Regarding the attack in Damascus, Saraya Qassioun claimed responsibility for the attack. Here is their announcement:
They claim to have targeted a bus belonging to the Military Housing Department, which is part of the Ministry of Defense, with an I.E.D. attack. The group also claims that the explosion killed 14 and wounded more. Syrian state media has confirmed the attack, saying that it occurred in central Damascus. Saraya Qassioun claims that the attack was located in Jisr al-Ra’is, which I believe to be around this area:
The groups states that it will continue attacks in government-controlled areas, specifically Damascus and its countryside. They also say that this attack is in response to the daily massacres in Northern Syria.
They obviously could not have predicted that the regime would target what looks to be a busy market on the same day as their attack, adding to the notion that terror bombing has been a common occurrence, especially in Northern Syria.
Though the regime has consolidated control over most of Western Syria (the more populated side of the country), it has failed to prevent the formation of insurgency in government-held areas. The fact that militant groups are capable of striking the heart of Damascus is not a good indication for the regime’s grasp on power. Insurgents cannot conduct the attacks they did in Damascus early on in the war, but clearly are still active in the area.
Two months ago, on August 4, there was a similar bus bombing in Damascus perpetrated by Hurras ad-Din, the now official al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria. I wrote a post about it here. The base for these attackers is likely Eastern Ghouta in the Damascus countryside and/or the Qassioun mountain range, which run alongside the city. Parts of these areas were once controlled by opposition forces, but have been under regime control for a few years now. During the clashes in Dara’a in July and August, there were some protests in Eastern Ghouta, suggesting the regime does not have absolute control of the area. The same supply lines that ran into Damascus during the fighting in its countryside are also likely being utilized.
Based off the location of military sites around the northern, western, and southern flanks of the capital, the eastern route is a clear preference for infiltration.
Here is a map, the shaded areas are military sites:
Indeed, this area of low military density was the focal point of resistance in Damascus during major fighting from 2012-2018.
This is from early 2013. Source.
I suspect that such attacks will continue to slowly trickle into the capital, but they will continue to hit minor targets in important areas. Grand displays like the bombings in Damascus in 2012 are likely not going to happen any time soon.